Local cherries will be ripe for the picking in just another week or two. But whether farmers will choose to harvest the crop or leave the fruit on the trees will be a game day decision.

Frost claimed a significant portion of this year’s cherry crop in the Yakima Valley. Industry experts consider frost damage to be most severe in the upper valley, affecting orchards like those owned by Craig Sundquist.

“We got hit by the frost pretty good,” Sundquist said. “There isn’t much of a crop this year. It’s down far enough that it’s questionable whether we’ll pick it.”

Each individual grower will decide which, if any, blocks are worth picking by comparing the money they will receive for the cherries versus the price they will have to pay to harvest the fruit.

Low-hanging fruit is first to fall victim to frost. With the remaining cherries growing higher in the trees, laborers will need to spend more time picking from ladders. Harvest will be more tedious for workers and more expensive for growers.

Mark Zirkle, president of Zirkle Fruit Company, estimates the local cherry crop to be about one-quarter the size of last year’s crop. He said that orchards will yield one or two tons per acre this year compared to the usual seven tons per acre.

Keith Mathews, Executive Director of the Yakima Valley Growers-Shippers Association, is keeping a close eye on production numbers in the Northwest, which includes Washington as well as the cherry growing regions of neighboring states.

Mathews said that while the Northwest typically produces 14 million boxes of cherries per year, the 2008 crop is expected to come in at 9.5 million boxes. Growers’ decisions to forgo harvest of orchard blocks hardest hit by frost could further reduce this estimate.

“I don’t know if I’m ready to say it will be less than 9.5 million boxes,” Mathews said. “But I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a fair bit less.”

The lower supply will likely result in higher prices for consumers and certain producers.

“If Washington state picks half a crop, that’s great if you’re the guy who has the crop,” Mathews said.

“Unfortunately, the Selah area was one of the hardest hit areas in the state,” Zirkle said.

In Zirkle’s 200 acres of Selah-grown cherries, frost hit Bing cherries the hardest. Rainiers didn’t fare much better.

Factors including the variety of cherry, age of the tree, slope of the land and the amount of airflow passing through the orchard can play a role in determining the severity of frost damage.

With so much damage already done, growers are now hoping Mother Nature will be more kind in the weeks to come.

“We might get some larger cherries if we have some perfect weather,” Zirkle said.

Warm temperatures will grow the cherries in size and sugar content. Dry weather will keep the cherries from splitting.

“The closer to harvest, the worse the rain would be for the crop,” Zirkle said.

Gusty winds can also leave brown streaks on the fruit, which can be especially noticeable on blonde varieties such as the Rainier.

Harvest in the Selah area is slated to begin around July 4.